Miami / UAB Under 54.5pts 2.2% play 

If these two teams played last year this total would be considerably lower.  The total opened up at 47, and has moved over a TD, and I'm going to fade the steam here for a couple of reasons. We have two teams that had top 30 defenses last year, and I believe the total is being inflated because of the way UAB's defense looked on paper last week.  They gave up 35 points to Central Arkansas, but a lot of that was misleading as UAB turned the ball over a few times, and that set up Central Arkansas for three TD drives of 35 yards, 15 yards, and 4 yards.  They actually held Central Arkansas to 4.4 yards per plays o that in itself was a little fluky.

Also, we have the hype of D'Eriq King coming in from Houston to play QB after not playing for the majority of the 2019 season is not going to be an overnight success especially opening up against a very well coached UAB team.  Miami should still have some major issues along the offensive line, and while I think King is a major upgrade, along with the addition of SMU's offensive corodinator Rhett Lashlee, I just don't see why you would want to pay a premium to bet the over here.  The under is the play.

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