Navy +1 2.2% play

The majority of the money is coming in on BYU, and it has caused a 4 point line movement pushing the Cougars to a small 1 point favorite.  Over the past 3 years teams who are an away favorite after a 3.5 point line move are just 1-6 ATS, which tells me to fade the steam.  What's driving this?  Navy returns less starters, and lose their do all QB Malcolm Perry, but they replace him with a SR. QB, and the coaching staff has remained in tact, and BYU has a far trip in uncertain times to visit Navy.  Add in the fact that BYU just lost their NFL caliber TE in Matt Bushman, and I don't see how the original oddsmakers are 4 points off the opening number of Navy -3. 

This was a last minute scheduled game, and appears to be the game of the week.  BYU was supposed to be playing their rivalry game against Utah, while Navy was supposed to be in Ireland to play Notre Dame.  This last minute change certainly benefits Navy, as BYU now on the fly has to prepare for the triple option.  BYU DC  Ilaisa Tuiaki doesn't have much experience defending the option, and that's not a good recipe for success, and in any other season there would be no way BYU would schedule a game like this, but these are uncertain times. We saw a very similar setup just a couple days ago when Army hosted MTSU.  MTSU, supposedly had more talen, lost their best offensive player, had to travel up to Army to play the triple opiton with a defense that did not have experience defending it.  The result was a 42-0 pounding by Army, and our clients benefited.  I don't expect the same result here, but I definitely feel that there is line value with Navy.


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