Tennessee -3.5 2.2% play

You may be able to get a better # live.  Tennessee's deep threat WR is suspended for the first half so if this is a game early you may be able to get a better # live or at the half.  No guarantee on that though, which is why I'm taking it now.  Tennessee's average recruiting class is 12 over the last 3 years compared to Indiana's 44th ranking.  Indiana has had an impressive season with 8 wins their most in some time, but it is smoke and mirrors.  Outside the Penn State game where I believe they caught Penn State at the perfect time following their first loss of the season this team really did not impress me.  This is a team that lost to a bad Michigan State team, and only averaged 23.8 poitns per game against top 50 defenses.  Here they face a top 50 defense that played even better down the stretch.  Indiana was 1-4 vs. TOP 50 Defenses beating only Northwestern who they played at home, and were +3 TO's, and Northwestern was one of the worst teams in the P5 this year if not the worst.

Tennessee has always showed up in bowl season, and have dominated bigger and better teams from the Big Ten beating Nebraska in 2017 by 14, beating Northwestern by 39, and Iowa by 17 in 2015.  On paper it appears that Indiana has a very good defense, but they rank 69th in passing explosive defense, while Tenn ranks 6th.  Their 54th ypp defensive rank comes against an average offensive rank of 81st, and they faced many of those teams with backup or even third string QB's, Purdue, Nebraska, Northwestern among those.  I think Indiana will have issues with the physicality and speed of Tennessee in this game, and they are highly motivated under Jeremy Pruitt to show it off, and build into the 2020 season.

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