Western Michigan +3.5 2.2% play
Both of these conferences have been bad in bowl games, and I have been impressed so far with what the MAC has done. Eastern Michigan went toe to toe with Pitt, and coveredt he spread, and Kent State beat Utah State. These are two teams who are opposites in the fact that Western Michigan relies on their offense to win games, while Western Kentucky relies on their defense to win games so I looked at what each team did in those situations.
Western Michigan against top 50 defenses went 2-1 and averaged 28.67 points per game. Even when their running game was completely shut down by Michigan State they were able to put up 17 points. Western Kentucky against top 50 offenses allowed 24.8 points per game. If we split the average we come up with 26.7 points for Western Michigan.
Western Kentucky's offense has been bad all year ranking 88th in ypp, and they'll go up against a non top 50 defense, which is something they have done a lot this year, and when they do they average 26.28 points per game. Western Michigan's defense facing a non top 50 offense allowed 26.8 points per game, which would put Western Kentucky at 26.5 points here. The interesting thing for Western Michigan is that if you take out their games against two P5 opponents who scored 50+ points on them they only allowed 18.6 points per game. This defense has the 30th ranked sack unit, and they rank 22nd in TO margin. All three of those factors make me want to back Western Michigan here along with the 3.5 points we are getting. This group of seniors are 0-3 in bowl games, and really want to win this game, and I think they'll be more desperate.
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