Miami -6 4.4% NCAAF POD
Everyone is picking Louisiana Tech, who gets basically a home game here, against a Miami team that finished the season with two ugly losses against FIU, and Duke. They also have a ton of guys either skipping this game for the NFL draft or injured, and the HC has not named a starting QB. This just seems way too easy, as 74% of the money is on Louisiana Tech, and the you'd expect more of a line move in favor of Louisiana Tech when you consider Miami has struggled in bowl games and Louisiana Tech is 5-0 SU & ATS under Skip Holtz.
First of all Louisiana Tech had one of the weaker schedules this season. On average they faced 85th ypp defense and offense. They strugged when they faced two top 50 defenses in UAB & Marshall putting up just 24 points combined. I understand they had some suspensions, but this team also got crushed when they faced a P5 opponent in Texas. Also, LA Tech has been impressive in bowl games, but they have played the likes of Hawaii, SMU, Navy, Arkansas State, and Illinois. Nothing like the talent they are about to see here the day after Christmas form Miami. Lastly, LA Tech is without their best defensive player Amik Robertson who is sitting the game out to prepare for the NFL Draft.
The other issue with Miami for some is that they are automatically saying they don't have any motivation. I think I would disagree with that here. It was an up and down season, but Miami showed they could turn it on when they wanted to. They have impressive wins on the road against FSU and Pitt, games that mattered to them, and then at home to Virginia and Louisville by 8, and 25 points. Their defense should dominate in this game, and force some turnovers. LA Tech has had 2 or more turnovers lost in 7 of their 12 games. Their offense should have time to throw the ball too as Louisiana Tech ranks 127th in pass rush, which is the biggest weakness of this Miami squad. They rank 112th protecting the QB, but that got better down the stretch, and when they faced Louisville who ranked 108th in sack % they put up 52 points on them.
