SMU -3 2.2% PLAY / Under 70 2.2% play

We all know the headlines of Lane Kiffin leaving for Ole Miss, and the defensive coordinator takes over the coaching duties here, which I feel can only hurt this FAU offense, which helps with the under bet.  They also have scored 3 less points per game when facing a defense that is top 50 in stopping the run, which SMU is, and SMU also capable of getting after the QB ranking top 10 in sack%.  The weather is also not going to be great for either team's offense as there is going ot be rain, sustained 16mph winds iwth gusts in the 20's, and we have a high total of 70.  SMU, also playing a top defense here, and I expect with the weather they will have to lean more on their running game, and FAU has been good all year long in the red zone allowing just 52% TD's, and with their defensive coordinator taking over for this game I expect the defense to be the side of the ball that tries to win this game.  They rank top 50 in YPP allowed,a nd rank 38th in QB Rating.

The side of SMU is hard to ignore considering AAC conference went 6-0 SU and ATS with an average MOV victory ATS! of 22.5 points.  Sonny Dykes also 2-1 ATS in bowl games, and the home field advantage for FAU is not an advantage.  The crowd did not show up to the conference championship, and I think this has a team like FAU less motivated playing a bowl game in their own stadium can't be very excited.  FAU also relies heavily on winning the TO battle.  +20 in wins and even in losses, and SMU has just 6 TO's lost on the road.


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