Buffalo -6.5 2.2% play
Buffalo back to a bowl game for the second year in a row with unfinished business. They’ll play in the Bahamas against Charlotte making their first bowl appearance after a great and surprising year. The wind will be a huge factor in this game with 20+ mph winds expected with 30mph gusts, but both of these teams prefer to keep it on the ground anyway rushing the ball 60%+ of the time, so it comes down to which team can run the ball better.
Buffalo is my pick, because they have the defense ranking 7th in run defense against an average opponent ranking 69th in ypc offense, they also rank 2nd in the nation in fewest 10+ yard runs allowed, while Charlotte comes into the game ranking 108th in ypc allowed, and 107th in 10+ yard plays allowed. Buffalo is very strong in the trenches, and I think they’ll wear down Charlotte by the end of the game, as they are capable of staying on the field for long stretches, and Charlotte’s defense has shown issues getting off the field allowing 43.17% third down conversions by opponent despite facing an average 3rd down offense ranking 37.56. Buffalo meanwhile has one of the best third down defenses allowing 32.45% against an offense that ranks 38.13%. Buffalo’s defense has allowed just 1 team to run for more than 4 ypc, and Charlotte is 0-3 when they are held under 4 ypc. Charlotte has allowed 10 of their 12 opponents to rush for more than 4 ypc. This clearly translates over to the red zone where Buffalo has held opponents to 51% TD percentage while, Charlotte gives up 66%. Another edge to Buffalo here.
Charlotte does have a better passing game, but this is where I think the weather actually helps Buffalo more. Buffalo’s pass defense which is good is helped by a great pass rush ranking 7th in sack %. Charlotte will likely be in plenty of third and longs, and I like the chances of this Buffalo pass rush forcing some turnovers. Charlotte played 5 top defenses, and were -5 TO in thos games throwing 8 INT’s, and they went 1-4 in those games. Western Kentucky game really seems similar to me as Western Kentucky’s offense doesn’t look good from a statistical profile, and I would argue Buffalo is better, because they have two 1,000 yard rushers, and a QB that is 6-1 ATS since taking over. Western Kentucky beat Charlotte 30-14, and Buffalo’s run defense is better. Buffalo also takes care of the ball. They were negative TO Margin in only 2 games this season.
Special teams is probably cost Buffalo at least a couple games, but here they don’t have a huge disadvantage. Buffalo ranks 130th in special teams efficiency, but they face a team that ranks 125th. Worth noting that C-USA went 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS vs. the MAC in the regular season, and the MAC has been bad in bowl play going just 22-43-4 ATS since 2005, but these are trends that are out there, and the oddsmakers are still making Buffalo a favorite here.
