Army +10.5 3.3% play
First of all I want to start by saying this is one of my favorite games of the year. It's one of the few you can say and clearly see when watching that every snap matters to both teams, and every single player is giving it max effort.
Army had a very dissapointed season, but this game means much more to them than any bowl game they were going to be playing in. Army could not win the close games like they did last year, but they still only got beat by more than 10 points just one time, which was their last game against Hawaii, game they were -2 TO's, and 1-4 on 4th down, while also having to play multiple QB's. Kelvin Hopkins, is the key to this Army offense, and he will play today, and that's great news for this offense. Army has not lost to Navy since Hopkins has been here. Army's offensive/defensive #'s are very similar to last year they ranked a combined 61.5 in YPP offense and defense agaisnt a combined average opponent rank 80.55. This year they faced a tougher schedule with an average opponent rank 72.45 for YPP offense and defense while their average was 69.5. So we are dealing with the same Army team on offense, and defense.
Navy has dramatically improved their offense, but while Army has faced a tougher schedule than last year Navy has faced an easier schedule and in their step up game against Notre Dame they did not show up, while Army stepped up and nearly beat a Michigan team that crushed Notre Dame. Turnovers were a big reason why that all happened, and they will likely be a key in this game here today. I favor Army as they have been great at winning the TO margin or not losing it since Jeff Monken came aboard. Their last 6 games vs. Air Force or Navy they have been +1, +4, +1, 0, 0, -1, -1 in TO margin. This season they are even in fumbles gained and fumbles lost, while Navy is -4. Army will need to win the TO battle again to have a shot at winning this game. Army has better ratings in power success rate on offense and defense ranking 13th, and 45th, while Navy ranks 74th and 125th! Army also ranks #1 in stuff rate offensive line, while Navy ranks 45. However, on defense it's Navy ranking 41st, and Army ranking 101st. Stuff rate is just % of carries stopped at or before the line of scrimmage which is a key ingredient to stopping triple option. Army's offense doesn't allow many defenses to do this and that helps them stay ahead of the chains, but their defense hasn't been able to stop anyone, but they know how to stop Navy's offense, as they were right in the game against Air Force.
Army against Air Force came down to Army's inability to convert on 4th down. They were 1-3 on 4th down in the close loss, and that's expected when they had to play the game with Hopkins. In the 3 game winning streak Army is 4-6 on 4th down against Navy. Navy did beat Air Force and their statistical profile appears much better compared to Army's game, but Army was on the road while Navy played at home. This spread is a 17.5 point move from last year, and I don't think Navy is 17.5 points better than last year. Where is Navy's big impressive win? They beat Tulane, SMU, and Air Force. These games have been close the last 5 years, and I don't see Jeff Monken, a coach I really respect letting his team lose by double digits.
