Georgia +7 5.5% NCAAF POD

This is not a popular play, which makes me feel even more comfortable playing.  We really are buying low on Georgia and selling high on LSU.  I'm aware of the injuries, and player suspension from Pickens for the first half, but all of that has been incorporated into this line.  When I look at the matchup I really don't see a huge disparity in these two teams.  Really the difference is LSU's top 5 offense has faced a weak schedule of defenses ranking on average 69th, and Georgia's top 5 defense has faced a weak schedule of offenses ranking on average 75th in YPP.  Georgia's offense ranks 33rd, while LSU's defense ranks 28th.  Those are the weaknesses of this team, but Georgia faced an average defense ranking 50th, compared to LSU's defense facing an average offense ranking 65th.  Georgia has gotten it done all year in a conservative old school style, that just is not sexy to the typical bettor.

LSU's schedule has been fairly easy.  Even their tough games were not as tough given the situation.  They hosted Auburn and Florida.  Florida played Auburn the week before and had several defensive injuries.  They faced Texas A&M at home and A&M was playing in back to back road games having faced Georgia the week before.  They faced Alabama off a bye, and Alabama had a bye too, but this Alabama defense was just awful, and LSU again faced Alabama with a rusty Tua coming off an injury and it showed early in that game as Alabama turned it over twice.  LSU really did not have a tough road game all year and their home away splits are mind boggling.  Their red zone offense which scored TD's on 91% of their attempts in the red zone has just a 59% TD% in 5 road games.  Georgia's red zone defense is exceptional 38% TD's allowed.  Defensively LSU has struggled 50% at home, but 71% on the road.  Their run defense has been particularly alarming allowing 4.96 ypc on the road comapred to 2.66 at home.  They allowed a QB Rating 46 points higher on the road vs. home.

Jake Fromm, still had a great season despite having to face on average a pass defense ranking 45th.  He has his hands full here again against a talented LSU secondary, but he plays behind the #1 offensive line in the country.  He has good group of RB's, and he makes good decisions.  Threw 0 INT's in 11 of the 12 games.  He had 1 bad game against South Carolina in questionable weather.  I think Georgia will be able to put up points, and move the ball on LSU's defense, and they'll have an excellent game plan.  This is arguably the worst spot for LSU all season facing a team that had an easy game the week before.  Not having to leave their home state.

At the end of the day Georgia has been here before.  They're playing in their home state, 3rd year in a row in the SEC Championship.  They held Alabama 10 points under their season total a year ago, and Auburn 27 points under their season total.  They have a QB playing his third SEC Championship game, and Georgia turned the ball over zero times the last two years.  In 5 games this year against top defenses they have a grand total of 1 TO lost.  LSU on the other hand has 2+ TO's in 4 of their 12 games and they have turned it over in 8 of their 12 games.  I think Georgia gets one, and that might be the way they win this game.  I think Georgia will have a shot to win this game, which means you'd see Ohio State vs. LSU, and Georgia vs. Clemson in the college football playoff, which is the way it should be.


Subscribe on iTunes