Oregon +7 -125 4.5% play / Oregon +210 1% play
I was hoping for a +7 to come up, but I don't think we see it at all. So I'll buy this to +7 and 2 of the 3 books I use has this at -125.
**Situation
Utah wins and many think they go to the CFP PLayoff. I’m not as sure about that. Oregon wins and they go to the Rose Bowl, so motivation is not going to be a problem for either side. If anything I give the edge to Oregon who really can play this game pressure free, and Utah has all of the pressure in the world on them. Utah 8-0 ATS their last 8 games chasing the spread each week for the playoff committee. If you want to back them you are going to pay a premium. 66% of the best and 63% of the money are on Utah.
*Weather
Expecting a lot of rain, and 12-15mph wind with 20-27mph gusts. Many are going to tell you that it favors Utah style of play, but I would argue that Oregon has a QB that can play better in that type of weather. Justhin Herbert grew up in Oregon, Tyler Huntley in Florida. It rains about 60 more days a year in Eugene Oregon vs. Salt Lake City, and they get about 30 more inches of rain. Oregon also runs the ball more than they pass and people forget about that, and they have the better offensive line which we will talk about later. The total has dropped 6 points, but the spread has only gone up in favor of the dog. Every half point matters more when you get a 6-7 point drop in the total due to weather.
*This Year vs. Last Year
These two teams met last year. Utah beat Oregon at home as a 5.5 point favorite by 7, and they did it without Tyler Huntley or Zach Moss. They were the luckier team recovering 2 of the 3 fumbles in the game otherwise the game was very much even and Justin Herbert played well completing 20-33 for 288 and 3 TD’s. He does fine against man coverage.
Oregon’s team actually improved more agaisnt the same schedule as last year. They improved from 59th in ypp offense to 16th, against a slightly weaker schedule than last year, but their defense jumped from 46th to 9th against a tougher schedule. Utah on the other hand has faced a significantly lesser schedule to this point compared to last year’s team, and I think that’s why their statistical profile looks great, but I don’t see that much has changed. For instance, last year Utah ranked 75th in YPP, but they faced on average a defense ranking 46th in ypp. This year they rank 11th, a massive jump, but it has come against an average 83rd ypp defense. Defensively, it’s another dominant unit ranking 7th in YPP allowed against a decent schedule of offenses averaging 65th, compared to last year’s squad that ranked 19th against an average 57th unit.
To me both teams obviously improved, but Oregon improved more, but Utah did not have their starting QB/RB in last year’s game and still won. So I would expect not much of a change in the line, because Oregon has improved more. The only difference is they scheduled Auburn and lost. A slip up at Arizona State, while Utah slipped up at USC. I think Oregon just lost later in the season, and people remember that more. Utah lost at USC, to USC’s 4th string QB.
Matchups
First lets start by Oregon and Utah have 8 common opponents. Utah has done better +25ppg, vs. +16ppg for Oregon. They are +214ypg vs. +84ypg, but Utah has a better home field advantage in the elevation so some of their stats are going to naturally look better. What I care about was their common road games against quality opponents @USC and @Washington. Oregon went 2-0, and Utah went 1-1. Utah could have gone 0-2, they really should have lost the Washington game, and the same with Oregon at WAshington. They were both almost identical in each game in total yardage, and rushing/passing differential.
Utah’s passing game has been efficient, they only throw it 35% of the time and they rank 6th in QB rating, and that’s largely thanks to the fact that they faced an easy schedule opponent defenses ranked 86th on average. They faced 1 top 50 passing defense, but that unit did not have a top pass rush or top rushing defense. In this game Oregon brings top pass defense ranking 5th, a top pass rush ranking 25th, and a run defense ranking 19th. Utah’s passing game is not explosive at all as good as Tyler Huntley has been he has not been tested this year, and he lost his favorite target on third down in Covey for the season. It hasn’t hurt him yet, but it might show up here, because.
Utah’s rushing attack ranking 44th is good behind Zach Moss, but not great. That has come against an average run defense ranking 73rd. Once again this is not an explosive rushing offense, and to win a game against a very balanced team you will need explosive plays. Utah has just 17 rushing plays of 20+ yards on the season. Oregon has allowed just 8 all season long which is good for Top 10.
Oregon’s passing game which ranks 9th like Utah has faced a very weak schedule average opponent averaging 80th in opponent QB Rating. They ranked 45th last year against an average defense ranking 70th, so they have actually improved, and Herbert had a great game last year against Utah on the road as I mentioned earlier. Utah’s pass defense is legit ranking 8th, but they have struggled at times this year. Both the USC and Washington games come to mind where they gave up over 300 yards passing 7 TD and 3 INT’s. Herbert is better than both of those QB’s and he also takes care of the ball more. I think Utah could have some issues here.
Oregon’s rushing offense is actually better than Utah’s. While they don’t run as much they are still efficient ranking 38th, and it comes against an average defense ranking 65th. They play behind a very experienced offensive line, and it shows. They were able to punch in 2 rushing TD’s in the Auburn game earlier this year on a neutral field which is really impressive given what that Auburn defensive line has accomplished this year.
X-factors
Predict the TO margin, and win the game. I think Oregon will take better care although both teams are in the Top 10 in TO margin. Utah usually wins by margin due to TO’s by that defense, and they can’t rely on that this game. Oregon has lost 11 all year and in their biggest games against USC, Auburn, and Washington on the road they had just 2 TO’s lost.
Special Teams is something you can’t ignore, and normally you would just automaitcally assume UTah has the better special teams. Some of their #’s are going to be better because they play in elevation. Overall they rank 70th in special teams efficiency, while Oregon ranks 42nd. The small things win these games for Utah and Kyle Whittingham, but he can’t say that for this game, as Oregon seems to be doing the little things better than Utah. 8.63% havoc rate allowed against an opponent average havoc rate of 15.04% compared to Utah who comes in at 10.67%, and an average opponent rank of 14.54% another reason why I like Oregon here.
