Baylor +9.5 3.3% play

Really nothing has changed my opinion if anything I am more confident in Baylor when I played them over Oklahoma a few weeks back as a POD as they nearly upset Oklahoma.  You can read that full write up here - https://freddywills.com/pick/7303/oklahoma-vs-baylor-4-4-ncaaf-pod-guaranteed-or-back-192-147-116-784-l-339-ncaaf-4-bankrol.html

Obviously this game is on a neutral field, and we have a 4 point move, and you'll hear a lot of guys that focus on only the #'s tell you that you have to play Oklahoma.  I played Oklahoma last week, and felt lucky to get a cover.  This team is just not the dominant team they have been in recent years, and I really hope they don't wiggle their way into the Championship game.  I think Baylor can play with revenge, and confidence.  They literally should have beaten Oklahoma, but their offense had several mistakes in the second half including dropped passes, a fumble after a long run, and they just couldn't get off the field on third down allowing Oklahoma to stay on the field the entire second half.

This is a new game, and I'm really impressed with how Baylor turned around the next week to completely dominate Texas at home winning 24-10, and then Kansas, a team that nearly upset Iowa State the week before.  I think Baylor is still playing with a ton of confidence while Oklahom seems like they are not playing with as much confidence turning into a run first team, and maybe that's better for Jalen Hurts, but they are going up against a top 25 defense that can stop the run and pass.  They play cover 3, and can get pressure with their front without blitzing.  I'm aware that Cee Dee Lamb didn't play in that game, but he really hasn't been himself since with 2 receptions, and 4 receptions.

For Oklahoma to win it took them going 12-18 on third down, Jalen Hurts threw a season high 4 passing TD's, and they ran the ball 52 times for 4.38 ypc, but didn't get a rushing TD.  Baylor will have a counter in this game, and Jalen Hurts is going to make multiple mistakes that could cost Oklahoma the game. I would not be shocked to see Baylor win this game at all.  In fact I put a small amount on Baylor to win the National Championship at 160 to 1 this week.  They would be the only 1 loss team to avenge their loss and if they do I think they get in.


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