Wisconsin -150 5.5% NCAAF POD

The weather is lesst han ideal with rain/snow with 30mph gusts of winds, expect a conservative approach from both coaches although Minnesota does like to come out agressive in these games, and then try to hold on.  I think Wisconsin's defense is the best defense Minnesota has seen all year, and the weather really just doesn't favor them in this spot.  Minnesota will have to stop Jonathan Taylor, and on paper it looks like they can do it, but they literally have faced one team in the top 50 in rushing offense all season, and they gave up 35 points to Fresno State.  They then gave up 32 at home to Georgia Southern team that ranks 51st.  Nebraska was able to run on Minnesota and didn't have Adrien Martinez, and Penn State was able to rush for 178 on just 29 carries.  Wisconsin comes into this game with Jonathan Taylor rushing for 200+ yards in each of his last 3 games, and should have another big game here.

Minnesota did beat Wisconsin last year, but that was a down Wisconsin team, and I think Wisconsin will only use that to their advantage.  Minnesota also needed a +4 TO margin game in order to get that win.  I think Wisconsin takes care of the ball here on the road, and Wisconsin should be able to dominate in the trenches and on third down, which should help them wear out this Minnesota defense.  Wisconsin is +25% on third downs compared to Minnesota who is just +11% against worse opponents.  If you don't have a running QB which Minnesota does not you can't run on Wisconsin.  It also doesn't help that Minnesota is 123rd in power success rate on defense and 103rd in stuff rate going up against a big defensive line in Wisconsin.  Minnesota has been a nice story, but I think the weather situation in this game is just too much to overcome.

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