Nebraska +4.5 2.2% play / Nebraska +185 1.1% play

This is a massive game for Nebraska and Scott Frost to get to 6 wins and become bowl eligible.  They are doing what they did last year and playing well down the stretch.  They outgained Wisconsin in their last home game in a misleading loss, and the defense held Wisconsin to 2TD's in 5 red zone trips, which I thought was a major improvement on what they had been doing earlier in the year, and their offense with Adrian Martinez back rushed for 273 yards in that game.  They backed it up with a dominating performance at Maryland last week, which doesn't say much, but it does show that they are capable of being on the same level of the other teams that have stomped on Maryland this year.

Iowa really what do they have to play for here?  This was a 3 point game last year in Iowa and Nebraska could have won that game.  Statistically speaking last year's Iowa team was better on defense than this year's version.  They ranked 6th in ypp against a tougher offensive schedule.  This year they rank 21st.  Their run defense was stronger, and their ability to get to the QB was stronger.  I think Adrian Martinez could have a good game, and I think they should win, because they have taken care of the ball.  In their first 5 games of the season they had 14 turnovers, but over the last 6 games they have lost just 5 turnovers.  The defense has also played better this year vs. last year.  Iowa doesn't typically blow out teams, and they have been outgained by 150+ yards in 2 of their last 3 games.  They beat Illinois at home last wee by 9, but didn't cover the spread despite being +2 in TO margin, which only happens 23% of the time.


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