Kent State +4 2.2% play
Kent State has the hot hand right now, and I don't believe Eastern Michigan should be more than a field goal favorite here. Eastern Michigan needs to wint he TO battle to win by more than 4 points here and even the game. They are +8 in their wins, and -3 in their losses, and Kent State just does not turn the ball over. They have 10 TO's lost all year, and 4 came against dominant defenses in Miami Ohio and Arizona State. Eastern Michigan's defense is down this year ranking 93rd in yards per play allowed. Kent State's offense has enough balance to keep them guessing here. Kent State's biggest weakness is their pas sprotection, but Eastern Michigan can't take advantage as they rank 92nd in sack %. Kent State has averaged 34.5 points per game against teams who can't get to the QB.
On the flip side Eastern Michigan is alla bout their passing game. One thing Kent State can do is get to the QB ranking 33rd in sack %. Eastern MIchigan vs. top 60 pass rushing units are only averaging 23 points per game. They also have worse offensive #'s in conference play. They are -5.5% on third down offense/defense, while Kent is +11%. They are -12 TD% in the red zone in conference play compared to Kent who is -9%. Their QB play/defense is also worse in conference play. I think this will be a tight game as both teams need a win to get to bowl eligibility. While Eastern Michigan alreayd has 6 wins there is no definite way they are getting in as there should be too many teams wiht 6 wins this year. Kent with a win I think is in with how well they have played to end the year. I'll gow ith the more balanced offense, and the team that I feel will take care of the ball more. We mentioned Kent State's ability to take care of the ball, Eastern Michigan's need to win the TO margin to win a game. Eastern Michigan has only forced 3 TO's in their 4 home games. I think both teams take care of the ball here, and this is a pretty even game so to be getting 4 points we have a bargain.
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