Virginia Tech -140 3.5% play
I see more value here on the money line than the -2.5 juiced. I think Tech is the right side and it is not because they have dominated the series history. They have just played better against similar opponents, and their QB play of Hooker has been a huge upgrade for this team ast hey average 10 more points per game when he plays. I questioned Hooker's stats last week against a good defense and he backed it up throwing 2 passing TD's against Pitt on a 10/13 throwing day for 153 yards. He has 10 TD's and 0 INT's on the season, and should be able to attacker a weaker Virginia secondary. Virginia vs. teams who have a top 50 run, pass, and sack % defense has average 30 points per game. That includes the Notre Dame game where they scored 20 without Hooker.
Virginia on the other hand has average 19.67 points per game in those same games. I trust Virginia Tech's offense more at this point. Virginia gave up 97 yards on just 11 carries to Louisville's QB, and Hooker has proven he's a bit more dangerous than Bryce Perkins. Perkins vs. Miami, Notre Dame, and Pitt had 51 carries for just 42 yards and 0 TD's. Hooker vs. Pitt and Miami had 30 carries for 103 yards and 2 TD's, he did not play against Notre Dame, and Virginia Tech still nearly won, becaue they were able to create turnovers.
Virginia Tech has forced 9 turnovers in those 3 games and were +6 while Virginia Tech was -3 with just 3 turnovers gained. Virginia Tech's defense led by DC Bud Foster will create turnovers, and Perkins will have a hard time putting up points in the red zone as well as Virginia Tech has been better in red zone defense as well. Offensively VA TEch has been great scoring 72% TD's in the red zone in conference play and 79% on the road compared to Virginia who has scored 62% at home. The key will be Virginia Tech going for it on 4th down and whether or not Virginia can stop them. I take the money line, because I see Va Tech scoring TD's, and Virginia scoring field goals and it should be a close game that Virginia Tech wins by 1 or 2.
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