UCF -6 3.3% PLAY
Fading the public dog is one of my favorite situations to take the favorite, and that is what we have here. There are a few others I like on the board, Navy -3.5 over SMU, but SMU has the extra week to prepare for the option, but SMU getting 66% of the tickets in that game. Kansas State at +2.5 also getting 69% of the tickets and 65% of the money over Texas Tech, and Tennessee +3.5 getting an amazing 73% of the tickets, and 66% of the money, also off a bye. I still may come back to Missouri if that gets down to -3.
Tulane has been a favorite of the "sharps" all season long, but Tulane had a crushing defeat last week against Temple knocking them out of the AAC Championship. This team is good, but they have been exposed without healthy RB, the QB has started to make too many mistakes. Tulane's defense also has a lot of question marks particularly in explosive plays allowed where they rank outside the top 100. That's a big problem with UCF, the forgotten team coming in off a bye.
UCF still alive to get to the AAC Championship. They need Temple to win out, and Cincinnati to lose out creating a three way tie, and I believe they get in. UCF one of the best explosive and explosive play allowed teams in the nation, and that's a bad matchup for Tulane. Tulane has faced two teams that have a balanced offense. That is a team that can run and pass or at least rank in the top 50 in QB rating. Navy doesn't really try to pass but when they do they are good for some explosive plays.. In both those games Tulane allowed 41 and 47 points and lost both games. I can see Central Florida scoring into the 40's and maybe the 50's in this game.
The main difference between this year and last for UCF is they decided to go with a true freshman QB in Dillon Gabriel. He's been great 24 TD's to 7 INT's, but all 7 of those INT's came in their 3 losses on the road. UCF still nearly won all 3 of those games despite being -7 TO they lost by a combined 7 points. Tulane doesn't really force a lot of turnovers in fact they rank 105th in TO margin and have never forced more than 1 interception. Central Florida coming in off a bye, and you have to think Gabriel is growing as a QB and won't make the mistakes he's made the last two games on the road. I think UCF cruises and we are getting a cheap price as the line has not moved a bit despite all the tickets/money coming in on Tulane.
