Duke +7 -115 3% Fade The World
Just 20% of the $$ and 28% of the tickets are on Duke here. Listen if they continue to turn the ball over then yeah they could get run out of the building again, but I have a few reasons to believe they won’t do that. This line is definitely inflated given the state of Wake Forest right now.
I really don’t see much separating these two teams. Wake benefited early from a much easier schedule. Their first 8 opponents all have 4 loses or more on the season. Wake Forest then stepped up playing Virginia Tech and Clemson who have 3 total losses and they were exposed, especially without their best offensive player in WR Sage Surratt. Duke meanwhile has faced 5 teams with 3 or less losses thus far, and they are coming off very bad loss against Syracuse, which I believe has inflated this line up to a TD. David Cutcliffe, who is one of the best dog coaches usually has his team ready to play the week after that type of a loss to a team they should have beaten, and I believe they were looking ahead to the Wake game, which they have had circled since the summer. ““Embarrassment. They came on our field, put 50-something on us,” Duke defensive end Chris Rumph II said. “We’ve had this marked on our schedule since last year, and we’re coming to practice with a mindset that that’s not going to happen again. We’re going to their house this year.”
Duke has proven they care about these rivalry games, stepped up and nearly upset North Carolina after losing to Virginia 14-48 the week prior. They haven’t played well of late, but here they go up against what has become a one dimensional offense in Wake Forest. Wake already among the worst teams in the country in running the ball, and now they are without their top two WR as Scotty Washington is questionable here. That has led to Jamie Newman making mistakes.
The running game will be key in this game, and I think Duke can have more success running the ball. Duke has faced 6 of 10 teams in the top 50 run defense. The 4 teams they faced outside of the top 50 for which Wake Forest is they went 2-2, and 1 loss was by only 3 points, and they only turned the ball over 6 times. I think establishing the run against Wake Forest is a big key, and that will help avoid the turnovers that have plagued this Duke team which has wasted a solid defense. Duke has 22 turnovers in their 6 losses this year, and just 2 in their wins. They’ll need that recipe to pull the upset, but either way I think it will be close. Wake Forest vs. a top 50 pass defense, has only happened 3 times this season. They beat Florida State 22-20, but should have lost, and lost their last two games against Clemson and Virginia Tech. Each of those 3 games they struggled to score points, and I expect to see much of the same on Saturday, which gives more value in getting a TD with Duke.
