Texas A&M +13 3.3% play
The total has come down a ton in this game due to the weather as we are expecting some heavy rain, but not a lot of wind. We have already seen how Georgia plays overall, with their conservative style, and it gets even more conservative when weather conditions are not great. Both teams are going to need to rely on the running game more here, and I feel that there is not as big of an advantage on the Georgia side as many think.
Georgia ranks 12th in rushing ypc, but they have not run for a lot of yards this year. They'll be facing a very good Texas A&M run defense that has been dominant at times. This A&M defense has size up front, speed at LB, and a safety in Demari Richardson who is not afraid to come up and make plays. A&M held both Clemson and Alabama under 160 yards rushing, and both those teams feature a passing game that is far better than Georgia. The weather also supports that Georgia is going to be more conservative. When you look at the games A&M has struggled to stop the run - Ole Miss, Miss State, and Auburn all three of those teams have something in common. All three have a QB that can run the ball. That's just not what Georgia does with Jake Fromm. Georgia when they are held under 160 yards are 3-5 and their 3 wins have all come this season by 7, 7, and 6 points. Texas A&M also top 15 in the country in rushing explosive plays allowed with only 9 rushing plays of 20+ yards.
Texas A&M has a very good rushing attack ranking 24th, and they have gotten better as the season has gone along and they have found a special player in Isiaha Spiller. I think Georgia's run defense which ranks 10th in ypc is a bit misleading as they have faced just 3 teams in the top 80 in rushing ypc. Kentucky is most similar to A&M, and they had plenty of success against Georgia, 35 carries for 160 yards. That was in a rain storm, with a RB playing QB in Lynn Bowden. Georgia knew what was coming and Kentucky still was able to run the ball. I really thought Auburn would have ran more early especially with Bo Nix. Gus Malzahn did not want to risk Nix health, because of the QB situatino and that's why we saw such a conservative approach from Auburn early. In the end Bo Nix was a factor 13 carries 42 yards, and if he doesn't miss a wide open receive in the flat on a 4th down play Georgia might have lost the game. Bowden who we mentioned had 99 yards rushing on 17 carries, and Ian Book only rushed it 3 times for 18 yards. Notre Dame barely had the ball and only tried to run the ball 14 times. Thig Georgia team will be tested on defense on Saturday, because Kellen Mond can run the ball, and he's an excellent passer. Georgia's defense was also on the field for 90+ plays.
Georgia has played conservatively all year, and if they play that way in this game they will win and not cover again. Georgia does not need style points, and I expect a close game here, because Kellen Mond has taken care of the ball against top opponents. Against Clemson, Alabama, and Auburn just 1 interception.
Subscribe on iTunes