Indiana +10 2.2% play
Indiana had a 73% postgame win expectancy on the road against Penn State. So many things went against them in that game, but they fought and stayed in the game, and at times looked like the better team. Indiana has played Michigan tough the last 4 games, and this is an ultimate sandwich spot for Michigan after Michigan State and Ohio State. We heard several Michigan players already talking about the Ohio State game. QB, Shea Patterson said that they had one game left that counted after the Michigan State game. Indiana has proven to be a very balanced team ranking top 50 in offense and defensive ypp, and Michigan is 0-2 against teams that can claim that. Indiana also sports a 24th ranked QB rating, which is the key to defeating this Michigan defense that is very good against the run. That’s a bold statement from a QB that has to go on the road this week where he has never played well. Patterson 12 interceptions in 15 road games in his career and has completed less than 60% of his passes.
Indiana could be without their #2 WR who left the Penn State game with a head injury. Tom Allen seemed confident in Indiana’s backups, and honestly Whop Philyor probably cost Indiana the game at Penn State. He touched the ball on a punt return to open the game, and fumbled it on the catch that got him removed from the game when two Penn State defenders could have been called for targeting but weren't.
Indiana has actually faced four teams in the top 30 in defense, and have had no problem putting up points against them all with the exception of Ohio State where they only scored 10, but in all others they scored 27, 34, and 31 points. I expect Indiana to put up more points than they have in the series in recent history as their offensive line is playing extremely well. They only allow 9.6% havoc rate, they are 24th in sack %, and 21st in power success rate. Indiana also has not turned the ball over in those games against top defenses with only 4 turnovers in 4 games and +1 margin. Michigan when they have faced top 30 defenses are -5 TO margin in just 2 games.
