Syracuse +9.5 3.3% play
We gave out Syracuse on the spread and money line last week and they made us look great. I am going back to the well here, as Dino Babers has his team playing with confidence, and needing to win to stay in contention of getting into a bowl game. Syracuse fired their defensive coordinator after the BC game heading into the bye. Dino knew his defense was talented, and under achieving and it certainly showed last week when they held Duke out of the end zone. Louisville on the other hand won last week, and are bowl eligible with a bigger game against an in state rival Kentucky next week.
The key to this game for Syracuse is the running game. They have ran the ball 40+ times in each of their last 3 games, and are 9-0 dating back to last year when they run for 200+ yards. Louisville’s run defense ranks 100th in the country and that comes against an average rushing offense ranking 78th. I think Syracuse can have some success in the running game here, and although their offensive numbers don’t look great this year Babers is an offensive minded coach. The offensive line played well last week, and going against a defensive line that ranks 108th in sack %, 96th in yards per play allowed should only benefit this offense.
Louisville’s offense has been great, but they have had 5 games where they have lost the TO battle, and Syracuse has only lost the TO battle once all season. NC State really shut this Louisville offense down in the first half by blitzing this offensive line which may be worse than Syracuse’s. Louisville has allowed 18.36% havoc rate, and they are 125th at protecting their QB, and give up a lot of tackles for loss. Syracuse is a very aggressive, and is coming into this game with a ton of confidence. I think it sets things up well for this to be a close game.
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