San Diego State +3 -115 4% play
I wanted to take the money line here, but at +120, the +3 offers much more value. The weather is calling for 17mph sustained winds and 30+mph gusts, which clearly favors San Diego State who runs the ball more and has the better defense.
This game is similar to my handicap last week with San Diego State against Fresno, and this game is much more meaningful with the winner headed to the Mountain West Championship. Hawaii has an offense, but no defense, while San Diego State has struggled on offense, their defense has been elite. We mentioned San Diego State vs. TOP offenses are 4-0 with a margin of victory of 9.5 points. San Diego State vs. defenses that are 100 or worse in yards per play or yards per carry allowed are 4-0 with a margin of victory of 11.75ppg. Hawaii comes into this game ranking 117th in yards per play allowed, and 126th in ypc allowed.
Hawaii has faced 3 solid defenses, and none have been as dominating as San Diego State. SD State ranks 10th in ypp defense, 3rd in ypc defense, and 22nd vs. the pass. We already mentioned that San Diego State has taken care of business against top offenses. Well Hawaii is 0-3 with a margin of loss of 28 ppg in those games. They have put up some points, but it's largely do to there being more plays. In those 3 games against top 70 defenses they were also -8 TO margin.
Predict who will win the TO margin game and you win 70% of your games ATS in college football! San Diego State +9 on the road +11 overall and they take care of the ball. Hawaii among the worst in the country -14 on the season and have been worse facing teams who are top defenses as we mentioned. They were -2 TO in this meeting last year and won the game. However, San Diego State QB Ryan Agnew, who is now a Sr. only had 4 passes in the game
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