Northern Illinois -4 2.2% play - 25-15 +$18,018 L 40 NCAAF 2% bankroll
Northern Illinois still has a shot to earn a trip back to Detroit, and they need 2 wins to get to bowl eligibility while Eastern Michigan needs only 1. Motivation is clearly on the Northern Illinois side here and they have won all of the close match-ups of late against better Eastern MIchigan teams. For instance Eastern Michigan ranked 28th in ypp allowed last year, and were +2 TO and still could not win the game at home. Northern Illinois on paper statistically does not look great, and I can see why that is driving 58% of the $ to the Eastern Michigan side at the moment, but they have played 7 of their 10 games on the road, and 3 came against Power 5 opponents including Top 10 Utah team. Yet they still rank 41st in rushing success rate. They are not explosive, but they have once again been a good rushing football team and when they run for 160 or more they are 3-0. Eastern Michigan’s run defense is allowing 4.97 ypc in conference play 5.16 ypc on the road, and they have given up 160+ rushing yards in 6 of their 9 games. They held Coastal Carolina in week 1, Akron, a historically bad team, and an FCS foe.
Eastern Michigan has the edge in turnovers, which is a very key stat you want to handicap. If you can predict who wins this stat then you would cover 70% of your games. Looking at it and I feel like these teams are more even than anything else. Eastern Michigan has been fortunate with fumble recovery while Northern Illinois has been unlucky. Eastern Michigan has thrown 8 interceptions and have collected 8 interceptions, but 4 of the 8 they collected was in week 1, which is a long time ago. Northern Illinois on the other hand also has thrown 8 interceptions and has only forced 4 interceptions but all 4 were at home. They have forced 7 TO’s in their 3 home games. Eastern Michigan has only forced 7 turnovers in 6 conference games. Northern Illinois only had turnover issues in 2 games against Ball State, and Central Michigan who have forced 27 TO’s in 13 combined games.
Where Northern Illinois really has the edge is third down. Their offense goes against a defense allowing 47% conversions, while their defense allowed 37% against similar strength of schedules. This trickles over into the red zone, where Eastern Michigan has had issues giving up 73% red zone TD’s and 76% in conference play. Northern Illinois defense has held opponents to 57%, and 57% in conference, 20% at home. Their offense is also better, 70% in conference play compared to Eastern Michigan’s 61.5%, and 57% overall. I think Northern Illinois who ranks 41st in rushing success rate can control the game against Eastern Michigan who ranks 114th in rushing success defense. Eastern Michigan also ranks 104th in passing success defense, and Northern Illinois is more balanced with Ross Bowers at QB. They have actually already thrown for more yards than they did last year.
