Missouri +7 2.2% Premium Newsletter Play

Classic buy low sell high situation here after Missouri got shut out last week and Florida blew out Vanderbilt 56-0.  Missouri played without Kelly Bryant and their top WR and both should be back for this game against Florida. Nearly 70% of the money is on Florida here, and the line has not moved.  26% of the tickets on Missouri, and this just smells like a game Florida is going to struggle with. First of all, they have only played 1 true road game against a balanced defense like Miami and lost 28-42 to LSU.  The other three games they are 2-1, but only one of those would have covered this spread as they lost to Georgia only put up 17 points, beat Miami by 4, and beat Auburn by 11 in a bit misleading fashion.

 

Missouri has just been a different team at home going 5-0  +28.8ppg, and 4-1 ATS, while 0-4 ATS -15.5ppg on the highway.  They just played 3 straight road games, and now they return home, and I think they can give Florida some troubles.  Florida had issues at Kentucky & South Carolina, and this feels a lot like those games. Against Kentucky, Florida trailed 21-10 to start the 4th quarter, before pulling away to win by 8, but it took a 75 yard run, and 4 turnovers to get there.  Missouri is top 50 in TO margin and Top 50 in rushing defense. Kentucky’s two weaknesses are their turnovers 86th in the country and their run defense which ranks 101st in the nation. Against South Carolina it was more of the same. Florida trailed 17-10, and 20-17 late, but a 75 yard TD run gave them momentum to tie it at 17-17.  This was also South Carolina’s game after the Georgia upset.

 

Missouri needs to get back to running the ball to be successful.  They are averaging 165 yards in their 5 wins, and Florida is allowing 2 yards per carry more on the road than at home.  Missouri also had 221 yards rushing at the swamp last year in their upset win. Missouri does not give up the explosive plays like Kentucky and South Carolina and they’ll have a shot to pull the upset


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