West Virginia +14 Fade The Public GOW

75% of the tickets are on Kansas State here, with more money on West Virginia and the line has dropped a point down to 14.  West Virginia actually has the better defense here. They rank 73rd in yards per play allowed, and their strength is against the run, which aligns pretty well in this match-up.  I don’t think Kansas State should be laying 2 TD’s or more to anyone in conference play, and they are not the type of team that runs away with games. West Virginia had a bad first half against Texas Tech last game on defense, and Neal Brown has made the adjustments and they held Texas Tech to 3 points the rest of the way and actually outgained them on the day.  West Virginia has played well on defense all year long and rank 47th vs. the run, and that comes with an average opponent rushing offense ranking 48th. They have played some good rushing teams this year and have held them in check. 

 

Kansas State’s offense has faced just two Top 50 run defenses, and they lost to Baylor 12-31, and beat TCU 24-17.  When they are held under 150 yards rushing they are just 2-3, and their two wins were misleading over TCU and Miss STate by 7 points each they were -82 and -83 yards in the game.  I think West Virginia can hold Kansas State in that range, and definitely below 5 yards per carry. If they do that they will cover this game.

 

This would be a larger play because Kansas State’s defense ranks 97th in yards per play, but their defensive weakness is run defense ranking 111th in ypc allowed.  West Virginia throws the ball 58% of the time. However, Neal Brown is a good coach and he knows you can’t do that on the road with this team. On the road he actually runs the ball 49% of the time, and when this team plays a team not in the top 60 in run defense they have been able to put up yards and points.  AGainst Texas they put up 31 points, and 463 yards of offense. AGainst Kansas they put up 29 points and 394 yards of offense. Against Texas Tech they put up 548 yards of offense, but only 17 points due to 4 interceptions thrown. I think they can have a balanced approach on offense which should help the QB play here.  This team really has only gotten blown out three times. At Missouri where they were -3 TO margin in the beginning of the season against Oklahoma which is actually the only game they allowed more than 5 yards per carry, and against Iowa State. Iowa State is just a different animal with a balanced offense. Kansas State is much more one dimensional and have flaws on offense and defense that do not warrant them being a 14 point favorite.


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