Cal +7.5 5.5% NCAAF POD
74% of the money is on Washington State here. I don’t really understand what they have done to be over a TD favorite on the road. It’s definitely recency bias here as Washington State nearly upset Oregon before their bye, but they have always played well against Oregon. Cal is obviously a top 50 defense, and Washington State is 0-3 vs. TOP 50 defenses this season. Can you really be impressed with any of Washington State’s victories? Colorado, Houston, and New Mexico State? I know Washington State played better in their last two games, but both Colorado and Oregon whom they should have beat always has trouble with Mike Leach’s offense. I believe Washington State has covered like 9 games in a row vs Washington State, and Colorado has lost by 20+ points 3 years in a row.
Washington State off a bye is never a good thing under Mike Leach. They have struggled in bowl games, and it’s because the offense doesn’t change anything. The bye week certainly helped Cal more as they get to really prepare for Washington State and their route concepts. Cal features 3 All-PAC 12 caliber guys, and Washington State in the last two seasons has thrown 7 interceptions against Josh Wilcox’s defense. I’d say he has a good handle on Washington State’s offense. The bigger question is can Cal score any points?
First of all, I do think they win the TO battle in this game they rank 36th in TO margin, and they have done that against an average opponent TO margin ranking 35th. Washington State ranks 95th in TO margin. Cal’s offensive #’s have been terrible, due to the QB situation, but it looks like Devon Modster will be back for this game and could give Cal a spark. Part of the problem for Cal is that they have faced a lot of top defenses. Only three times did they face a defense that was not ranked in the Top 70. They beat North Texas and Ole Miss, but lost to Oregon State by only 4 points. They scored 23, 28, and 17 points. I don’t see Washington State scoring more than 21-24 points in this game when they only scored 19 last year in their 19-13 win at home which took a TD at the end of the game with 32 seconds left. The year before when they traveled to Cal at night they put up just 3 points in a crushing loss as a 17 point favorite. Washington State’s defense ranks 110th in yards per play, 107th in rushing yards per play, it’s the worst rushing defense that Cal has faced, which should help their offense tremendously.
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