Louisville +7 3.3% play - A few +7's have hit in the last hour, and I don't think they'll last. I still like this at +6 or better.
Miami has to be full of themselves right now, and this is a sell high situation after they come off two huge road wins, but they have not done well following the Florida State game. Just 1-5 ATS the last 6 years, with an average margin of loss of 13.6 points ATS. Miami has lost 4 of those games outright as favorites and have gone 0-2 ATS if they are facing a team off a bye which they are here. Louisville has two impressive wins on their resume against Virginia and Wake Forest both teams who have been ranked at different times this year. They’re off a bye and Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield is 9-1 off the bye in his career, and has to prepare for a one dimensional Miami offense that ranks 116th in rushing yards per carry.
Louisville wants to run the ball and they have been effective doing it ranked 57th in the country and have gone up against a very challenging schedule facing defenses ranking 42nd in YPP defense. Miami’s defense, which ranks 11th has not faced a top 50 offense all year. Louisville ranks 45th in YPP against an average 42nd ranked defense. Louisville has faced 4 TOP 50 run defenses and have run on all of them averaging 209.5 yards per rush. That includes Clemson who they ran for 156 on. Since the start of last year Miami is just 2-8 when they allow over 140 yards rushing, and the win this year was by 4 against Pitt in misleading fashion. Miami’s run defense has holes. They gave up 176 yards to Pitt who is a pass first team ranking 107th in rushing ypc. They gave up 200 to Georgia Tech who is in rebuilding mode and ranks 84th in rushing, and gave up 153 to Virginia Tech who ranks 111th in rushing ypc.
Miami has struggled on third downs due in part to their struggling offensive line that ranks 125th in power success, 123rd in protecting the QB, and they have only converted on 25%. Well, Louisville ranks 11th in power success rate and while they don’t get to the QB, they are only allowing 35% third down conversions against a schedule that averages 41.36% holding opponents below their season average is impressive. Miami needs explosive plays in this game to win, and Louisville knows this coming off a bye have had time to prepare for Miami in a key game for Louisville under their new coach if they are going to go to a bowl game. Louisville also has a major advantage in special teams ranking 49th in the country to Miami’s 120th ranking.
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