Alabama -6 4.4% play / Tua to win Heisman +375 2% play
I wanted to get this bet out there before the line moves too much. We are already seeing sharp action on Alabama and I completely agree with it.
LSU nearly lost two games at home to Auburn and Florida or at least they both were in that game. Florida has a TD lead in the third quarter in that game while Auburn played toe to toe. Alabama is a better version of both of those teams. Florida was missing two defensive ends and their defense is weaker than Auburn's and it showed with the explosive plays they gave up to LSU. Auburn's offense was inconsistent, while Florida was able to move the ball consistently in the air on LSU's defense.
Alabama is the most balanced team LSU has faced, and they have to do it on the road where they have not looked good all season. They gave up 38 points to Vanderbilt, 38 points to Texas in a neutral site, and Alabama's defense also got a wake up call having to play without Tua in their last game they absolutely played their best game. Alabama's offense is better than LSU. As good as LSU's receivers are, Alabama's are better. You also give NIck Saban two weeks to prepare and a #2 ranking behind LSU #1, and Saban is going to have his team fully motivated to make a big statement. This is a team that is playing with a chip on their shoulder after losing in the National Championship game.
I throw in Tua as the Heisman, because it makes a lot of sense that if they win this game he is probably the favorite. Alabama will also need a big game from him to win anyway, and there is tremendous value unless they trip up at Auburn.
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