Tennessee -12 2.2% PLAY
With only 3 wins, Tennessee needs this game badly and they won’t be looking past UAB after losing to Georgia State earlier in the year. They are also paying their best football of the season and should be fully motivated and excited after last week’s win, and this game will be played at night. I said it last week when we took them at home +4.5 against South Carolina as we saw some signs in their game against Alabama where they were about to cut the game to a 1 possession game in the 4th quarter, before fumbling on the goal line and Alabama returning it the other way for a massive 14 point swing. That confidence showed up last week as they dominated South Carolina, and I see no reason why they shouldn’t beat UAB team that continues to over perform.
UAB 5-2 ATS this season, 10-4 ATS last year, and 8-4-1 ATS the year before. UAB lost both games ATS the last two seasons against P5 opponents Texas A&M losing by 21, and Florida losing by 29, and I see a similar result here. They lost 35 seniors from last year’s team, and teams that win 18 games ATS in a two year span just don’t continue covering games like this. UAB has benefited from a very easy schedule. The opponent offenses faced in their 7 games have an average yards per play ranked 121st. I don’t think I have seen something like that before. So, UAB’s defense has really been able to dominate, but this is obviously a step up when you look at Tennessee’s talent, they’ve ranked 17th, 16th, and 5th the last 3 years while UAB 93rd, 105, and 83rd. The biggest question for Tennessee has always been coaching and whether or not the players buy in. I think this group of coaches is good, and I think we are just starting to see the players buy and come together. It looks like Brian Mauer will be back at QB which will be a huge addition for Tennessee, but we may see all 3 QB’s play here.
UAB also has not taken care of the football and their offense ranks 93rd running the ball, and if you can’t run, that’s going to be an issue, because Tennessee ranks 23rd in sack %, and the QB for UAB already has thrown 10 interceptions. Tennessee’s coaching staff has been talking about TO margin all year, and they finally come off a game they don’t turn the ball over. Let’s see if they do it again. Tennessee also a massive edge in special teams where they rank 10th, so we have some hidden yards there
