Oregon -4 1.1% Free Play

Every sharp seems to be on USC for the same reason.  Oregon has looked weaker against the pass, and typically have struggled vs. the Air Raid, and did so just last week against Washington State, but they were able to escape with a win after their worst defensive performance of the season.  I have to think that seeing that offense just last week will help this secondary, and almost losing has to motivate and focus this team whose goal is to get to the college football playoff. Oregon’s offense continues to run the ball more than throw, and they dominated against a run defense that is very similar to USC.  Oregon put up 303 rushing yards in that game, and I think they’ll find success yet against as USC ranks 94th in run defense. USC opponent YPC offenses faced rank 65th, and Utah lost Zach Moss after the first drive in the game they beat a very good Utah team.

 

USC’s defense is banged up, which won’t help them in this game, and if they want to stack the box to take away the run, Oregon has Justin Herbert one of the nation’s best QB’s who really impressed me in their road win at Washington.  Oregon has more key advantages in this game including a massive edge in the red zone. They have a 70% TD percentage in the red zone, while USC has a 54%. Oregon’s defense has allowed just 33% of red zone trips by opponent offenses to end in a TD.  They’ve also picked up 14 passes, and have 8 interceptions in their last 3 games. They picked off Anthony Gordon twice, and they rank 4th in the nation in TO margin while USC ranks 115th. I think Oregon can get some turnovers, and get some red zone stops to win this game by 7 or more, and they have all of the motivation to run it up and impress the college football playoff committee.


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