Army -10 2.2% play
I think Army gets back to basics this week, as they face a San Jose team off a tough physical game against San Diego State, and they have to fly across the country to play at 9am body clock time. I think Army getting back home going against a team that ranks 102nd in stuff rate, has just a 12.7% havoc rate, and ranks 101st in power success rate on their defensive line. Army has a major advantage in the trenches in this game ranking Top 30 in both offensive and defensive power success, and they are going up against a team outside the top 100 in both.
Air Force who runs the same offense dominated San Jose State earlier in the year rushing for 382 yards 5TD’s on their way to a 41-24 win. This spot is better for ARmy, and that game was more of a blowout than the final indicated. Army won this game 52-3 last year, and I expect another double digit victory for a team that has to be frustrated with how they have played the last 3 weeks. San Jose State is one of the worst in third down defense giving up 50% conversions, and that’s bad news going up against Army, who should control this game when you factor in San Jose STate throws the ball 65% of the time and only converts 35% of their third downs. Army is actually not bad on defense, and better than Air Force ranking 42nd in yards per play, and 62nd vs. the pass. Expect some three and outs, and Army will control this game and make San Jose State extremely predictable which will lead to some turnovers.
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