Washington +3 3.3% play
Oregon won this game last year by 3 at home in OT as 3.5 point dogs, and now they are 3 point favorites on the road, which is telling you they would be 9.5 point favorites at home? I just don't see it personally. The defense ranks #3 in the country , but they haven't faced a single offense ranked in the top 50, as their average opponent ranks 83.6 in yards per play. Washington ranks 33rd, and is a balanced offense ranking 33rd in ypc, and 40th in QB Rating. Of the 10 opponent units that Oregon has faced they have only faced 1 in the top 50, and that was Auburn's 24th ranked rushing attack. Oregon was outgained in teh game by 51 yards and -.36 yards per play. I know Washington had to replace a ton of experience from last year, but they too lost to Auburn a year ago, but they were +.95 YPP in that game.
The talent and recruiting over the last 3 years has been nearly identical, and Washington owns one of the best home field advantages in the country. I think the loss of their top receiving target Jacob Breeland is going to be huge, and they have had struggles in the red zone. Some of Washington's defensive struggles are not real in my opinion. They really let USC run on them until they got down into the red zone where they forced turnovers. I could see the same thing happening here. Washington's offense on the flip side should find success on the ground, and Chris Petersen is very familiar with the DC Andy Avalus at Oregon who played under him when he was at Boise, and was also a LB coach.
