New Mexico +19 2.2% Play
Sustained winds of 20mph with gusts of 35 mph in this game dropping the total from 54 to 49, and the spread has not dropped at all, which is giving us more value on the Lobos here. I also think they match-up well if they can avoid turning the ball over, and the weather also benefits them more than Wyoming. We are also getting an inflated price here based off the last two meetings 31-3, and 42-3 for Wyoming, but Wyoming has won some misleading games this year, and have a ton of issues right now.
Their safeties coach is suspended for DUI. Their 2 best run blockers Abojei, and Velzasquez may not play. Abojei is definitely out and it sounds like Velzasquez probably won’t play. They are also without 2 of their top 3 running backs. This is all happening toa team that runs teh ball 68.9 % of the time, and completes less than 40% of their passes playing in a game with windy conditions.
Meanwhile New Mexico comes into this game and they too are not completing above 50% of their passes, but they are actually better at running the ball ranking 26th in yards per carry compared to Wyoming’s 86th ranking. Now some of that is due to strength of schedule as New Mexico has faced an average run defense ranking 100.6, while Wyoming has faced 72.4, but that evens out with the fact that Wyoming is dealing with all those injuries. New Mexico is actually decent at defending the run ranking 41st going up against a 78.6 average YPC offense compared with WYoming’s stout run defense ranking 7th, but that has come against a 103.4 average opponent rushing ypc offense. New Mexico is also better at explosive runs ranking 25th compared to wyoming #75, and on defense, both teams are about the same. New Mexico has given up just 19 runs of 10+ yards compared to Wyoming who has given up 22.
Wyoming is being outgained by 50ypg, and they trailed by double digits in 4 games three of which they came back and won. I don’t really understand this spread, and the injuries and weather only benefit our side more. New Mexico also has an extra day to prepare for this game.
