Marshall +5.5 3.3% play
This is a buy low spot on a team that is 1-5 ATS in Marshall, but is typically one of the better ATS teams going up against an overrated Florida Atlantic team that is 4-2 ATS. Doc Holliday is a great coach at Marshall. He is 7-2 ATS the last 3 years as a road dog, and he always takes these games with the Florida schools seriously, because he does a lot of recruiting in the state. Marshall is 12-3 since 2013 vs. the Florida schools or games played in the sunshine state including 3-0 in bowl games. Marshall has a lot of Florida players as well, and I think they have a good shot at pulling the upset.
When we look at these two teams I really can’t figure out why this is not FAU -3. Marshall’s offense and defense is better. Their blended YPP differential vs. opponent YPP differential is about a half yard better at -0.48 compared to FAU’s -0.9. They both have played and lost to two TOP25 teams. I think this line is inflated because right away people are going to look at the most recent results and see that Marshall lost against Middle Tennessee on the road and FAU beat them at home. Marshall had a misleading loss they were actually +1.02 YPP in that game +177 total yards, but were -4 TO. FAU was outgained against Middle Tennessee by 95 yards on their home turf and were -1.34 YPP. That’s a difference of 2.36 yards per play, and FAU is getting credit in the market when they shouldn’t be. 76% of the money on FAU here tonight, and I could not disagree more.
For Marshall to be successful they need to establish the run, and they rank 18th in YPC going up against a defense ranking 97th at stopping the run. FAU’s defensive #’s look better than they actually are. This is a poor defense ranking 109th in YPP defense giving up 27 and 31 points to lesser teams like Charlotte and Ball State. Marshall has the ingredients to win as a dog on the road. They hung right with Boise despite not playing their best game, and that was a much more difficult trip. Marshall has an experienced line and rank 18th at protecting their QB, and have only allowed a 7.89 % havoc rate. They have been poor in TO margin, while FAU has been very good, but I think that’s largely due to the fact that Marshall has been unlucky recovering just 33% of fumbles, and FAU has recovered 71% of their fumbles.
