I'll take Georgia on the money line here for a free play. All my free plays will be on the money line either for favorites or under dogs. I missed this at a better line, but I'm still confident playing Georgia considering they are the unranked team as favorites. Georgia is actually the better team and have faced the 45th toughest schedule compared to Arkansas and their 267th. Georgia has a 7.5% rebound rate advantage in home/away splits and Arkansas's high flying offense really has not faced a defense with an opponent defense strength of schedule ranked 247. Georgia plays defense as good as any team ranked 19th in adjusted defense and 18th in 2 point % defense where Arkansas will take many of their shots.
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the public has pushed this number quite a bit but I'll take A&M who I think is the better team at least in adjusted rankings. Home court is not worth this many points and there are several other factors that make Alabama a risky play such as the number of times they take three point shots. Roughly 40% of their shots are from three and that really falls into the Aggies strength here ranking 41st in three point defense and they have actually allowed 25.6% on the road. Overall they rank #54 in adjusted defense compared to Alabama who is ranked 74th. So we also get the better defense on the road while we also get the better rebounding team as A&M ranks 62nd compared to Alabama at 141st. I also think Alabama's offense has been as good as it has been because of the teams they have faced as the opponent defense strength of schedule comes in at 327. This is clearly a step up and A&M should keep this game in the 50's. A&M faced two similar teams with this type of defense and were held to 52 and 56 points against Wichitah State and UCLA neither of which are ranked in the top 100 in 3 point defense or even 2 point defense for that matter. For that reason I will also go with the under as the Aggies are Under in 43 of their last 62 road games and the Crimson Tide are also under in their last 4 vs. the SEC and 31 of their last 43 following a SU win.
Each of these teams are 0-1 in conference play and neither team has played very good defense to start the year. Pitt's offense is a bit better but they have done it against the 276th strength of schedule for defenses. Both teams have similar stats as far as strength of schedules go, but I think home court is worth a lot more for BC here. They also have the ability to defend and rebound along with their +5 turnover margin ratio at home. Pitt has had a rough start on the road shooting over 7% lower on the road than at home at 44% which is 10% lower than what BC shoots at home. Again both schools have played similar strength of schedules so I expect BC to be able to come out with a win here tonight.
