Louisville +7 4.4% play 

I think Louisville might be able to win this game outright.  I don't like to look at common opponents as a key indicator, but it's worth noting.  Louisville +101 yards vs. Boston College, and Wake Forest -93 yards.  This is an extremely inflated number in my opinion base don the fact taht Wake Forest is 6-0 and ranked 17th in the country, but Louisville has faced the far tougher schedule.  Louisville's defensive staff also is familiar with Wake Forests offense as they played Wake in 2017 while at App State.  App State lost 20-19 but missed an extra point and two field goals.  Both teams come into this game with a zero yards per play differential.  The big difference however ist he fact that Louisville's opponent YPP differential is +0.7 while Wake Forests is -0.6 for a difference of 1.3 yards per play.

Louisville's offense is actually better statistically than Wake Forest with more balance, and they have faced a significantly tougher schedule in terms of defenses faced.  Louisville's 29th ranking in YPP against an average opponent YPP 45.75 compared to Wake Forest's 48th YPP O against an average 82nd defense.  This is the best offense that Wake Forest has faced season to date, and the most balanced.  North CArolina and Boston College blended rushing offense / passing offense vs. opponent defense blended  is 52.5 vs. (60.5), and 45th vs. (79) compared with Louisville who comes into the game with a #36 blended offensive average up against defense ranking (44.5 blended).  So they've been the better offense and have faced a tougher defense.  I think Louisville can have a big day, and I like Cunningham here at QB for Louisville.  He adds something extra to this offense, and he has passed the ball well completing 65% of his passes 5 TD's and 1 INT for a 190 QB Rating playing just as good against BC's pass defense as Newman from Wake Forest.  Of course he can run the ball too and that's been a problem for Wake in the past.  Last year they faced two QB's that could run in Ian Book, and Eric Dungey.  They gave up 162 yards rushing in those two games to the QB on 34 carries and gave up 56 and 41 points in both games that were losses.

Wake is off a bye here and you have to mention it but Wake is 0-6 under Dave Clawson off a bye.  They've lost to good teams and average teams.  The last 5 years they have lost by 21, 14, 8, 21, and 23 points out of a bye.  I think Wake is fortunate to be undefeated at this point in the season and Louisville seems to be turning the corner.  


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