Iowa +3.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Stock for Penn State probably could not be higher right now after the last two weeks, and Iowa after their performance against Michigan could not be lower, but I watched that game, and they just had a bad game.  Stanley threw 3 interceptions, and the offensive line played poorly, but they still had chances to win at the end of the game. Iowa was the better team than Michigan. Stanley is a veteran QB, that has only thrown 2 or more INT’s twice in a game and I don’t see him making those mistakes back at home where he has a 34 TD to 8 INT’s over his career.  Penn State has shown some red flags this season which are buried. Against Buffalo, a physical team in the trenches, much like Iowa they were -106 yards rushing and were trailing at the half at home and being outgained. Against Pitt at home they were -150 yards passing. I could totally see Nathan Stanley having a great game here on Saturday night. 

 

Penn State really hasn’t proven anything?  Yeah they rank #3 in total defense and that’s what is carrying them right now as they lack a dominant RB, and they have an inexperienced QB.  However, Penn STate has faced an average ypp offense ranking 93.5, and opponent average ypc offense ranking 82.75, and an opponent average QB rating ranking 93.25.  Iowa is easily the most balanced attack that Penn State’s defense has seen. Penn State has faced Iowa State, and Michigan on the road so far. I just don’t know if I can trust Penn State with an inexperienced QB on the road against an Iowa defense that doesn’t give up explosive plays.  They rank 2nd in the nation in 20+ yard plays allowed, and that’s what Penn State relies on in their offense right now. I just expect this to be a fight through 4 quarters with Iowa leading most of the way. Since 2000, Iowa is 14-6-2 ATS as a home dog, and they are 25-15-2 ATS following a SU loss in the last 10 years.  Iowa actually outgained Penn State on the road last year in their 6 point loss.


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