Army +3 -125 3.75 % play
I was waiting for a 3 to show up to release this or find a value side to tease Army with, but I never saw it. I think Army wins outright, but there is not enough value on the money line so I am buying a 1/2 point, which is 20cents to do at my book on -105 odds.
Both teams are off a bye, but Tulane has not played in 16 days, which is not a great situation to be in this early in the season. They are also traveling all the way up to New York to play and the temperatures will be in the 40’s which is cold for the Louisiana boys. Jeff Monken is one of the most underrated head coaches still, and has Army sitting at 3-1, and is also off a bye here. The last 2 years with extra time to prepare Army has been dominant going 6-0 outscoring opponents 36-12.5 on average in those games. They know how to defend the run, which Tulane boasts a heavy does of, and they have been able to get to the QB with a 13th ranked sack %. How many times can you say that about a service academy?
Tulane has struggled in these matchups as they only beat Navy 29-28 last year, and Navy lost to Army 21-0. In 2017 they beat Army at home as a 3 point favorites 21-17, but Army was -3 turnovers, and they gave up two big runs against Tulane with a 75 yard run and 72 yard run in the first half. Army’s defense just doesn’t give up big plays anymore. Last year they ranked #12 in big running plays allowed, and this year they have only allowed 10 runs of 10+ yards while Tulane has allowed 21 10+ yard runs. I just don’t understand why there is a 6 point swing between these two teams, and I get I’m backing a popular dog this week, but Army is just not your traditional team, and they have the better coach, and play so well at home. I think being a dog here they will have a chip on their shoulders, and this is just Tulane’s 7th game in 13 years as a road favorite.
