Connecticut +11 2.2% play 

Uconn is improving under the radar while USF is continuing to get worse under Charlie Strong.  This was a 30-38 loss for Uconn last year on the road as Uconn had 322 yars rushing in the game.  I don't understand this line as the stats and opponent stats are nearly identical in this matchup, but we get Uconn at home hungry for a conference win, playing in 47 degree weather something that South Florida is not used to at all.  This game was moved up from a 7pm start due to a Mosquito situation impacting the state, but I think that really benefits the home team in this situation. 

So let's look at the stats.  Uconn 117th in yards per play, but have gone up against an average defense ranking 46.33, compare that with South Florida who ranks 127th in yards per play having gone up against a slightly toughter average opponent defense ranking 33.33.  Both teams rank 128th and 126 running the ball having gone up against similar run defenses, South Florida has faced 52nd average defnese compared to Uconn 54th.  Being at home helps the rushing offense, and Uconn wants to establish the run.  Uconn gets to go up against the 93rd ranked run defense should help them move the ball in this one.  The X-factor in this one is Uconn moving on from a grad transfer to the RS Freshman QB Steven Karjewski who had 3 TD's ad 273 yards passing a week ago.  I think tha tshould help them in this gme, as they will have a chance to win this game outright


Subscribe on iTunes