Navy +3.5 2.2% play

Air Force has gotten 71% of the bets so far, and the line has moved 1.5 points giving us value on the home dog here.  I really don’t understand the move. Air Force has been a team I have backed and have been disappointed in as they really have struggled turning the ball over, and I really don’t anticipate it to stop here, as they are 123rd in TO margin.  Air Force is also in a brutal scheduling spot playing their 5th overall game, and 4th game in 21 days, 3 of which are on the road, and here they have to travel over 1600 miles to face a Navy team with an extra day of rest.


Navy QB Malcom Perry is now probably for this game, and Air Force’s QB Donald Hammond has been banged up each of the last two games.  The stat that surprised me the most was Navy ranking 23.2% in havoc rate comparing that with Air Force has a 12.9% havoc rate. I think that’s critical to defending the option, and Navy has a 25% third down conversion defense compared to Air Force giving up 48%.  The 3.5 points are valuable with a low total of 45, and the Under has gone 31-8 over the last 13 years when service academies face off against each other.

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