Nebraska +17 3.3% play
If you want to hang out for a 17.5 I think you may see it pop up at a couple of shops, but if Nebraska is in the game like I think they'll be you won't need it. The biggest question I have that is not making this a larger play is the fact that Nebraska has not been able to hold onto the ball. There were 5 fumbles in last week's game against Illinois and Nebraska did not recover a single one. So right now it's a bit of not taking care of the ball and not having the luck to recover. So I think this has been a focus all week in their singature game under Scott Frost. The result against Illinois is also giving us 3 points of value from last week. Anytime you just barely beat Illinois 42-38 you are going to be disrespected in the market, and people are going to be very hesitant to back you, but that's where we make money. I saw good things from Nebraska each of the last two weeks. They actually outgained Illinois 671 to 299 so that final score was misleading and I think gives us value in this number.
This team has the confidence and believes and are fully capable with Adrian Martinez at QB to pull an upset. They lost 36-31 and led 21-16 at the half in Columbus just a season ago.
Ohio State has struggled in these road games against programs playing in a crazy atmosphere at night. They lost at Purdue last year, and at Iowa the year before. I don't envision Nebraska blowing out Ohio State, but I do think this is a close game and Nebraska is fully capable of a back door at worse case. Ohio State has struggled with teams who have explosive rushing attacks, and it's probably the weakness of Ohio State's defense. Right now they rank 3rd in the country in run defense, but the average opponent's rushing attack ranks 102.75. I really like this spot for Nebraska it's their biggest game in years, and it's at night, and we are getting line value.
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