Baylor +3 2.2% play

These two teams are very similar with two up and coming coaches who play much better in the underdog role.  Baylor was not impressive at Rice last week while Iowa State dominated Louisiana Monroe, and that’s giving us tremendous line value in my opinion.  Baylor under Matt Rhule is actually an amazing 11-3 straight up as a dog by less than a TD, and in this game last year they may have lost 28-14 at Iowa State, but they outgained them 505 yards to 355, as they were only able to score 14 points in 7 trips in the red zone.  So far they have 12 TD’s in 13 trips to the red zone.

Baylor should benefit from the weather that is showing 25-27 mph wind gusts, as they run the ball 58% of the time compared to Iowa State who runs just 45% and is extremely thin at RB.  Baylor out rushed Iowa State last year, and I expect the same here as Charlie Brewer who had 80 yards rushing is still the QB for the Bears. It’s also going to be 97 degrees which also favors Baylor.  Iowa State had two trips to the state of Texas last year and lost both to TCU, and Texas. Iowa State is getting a lot of hype in the early going, but I think these teams are fairly even, but we are getting Baylor a +3 at home.


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