Boston College +6.5 3.3% play

I think we are getting value with the Eagles off that Loss to Kansas, and there should be a lot of buzz with BC returning home.  These two programs have almost identical recruiting rankings so it’s not like there is a huge talent gap on Wake Forest’s side. I just don’t understand this line as the spread was BC -6.5 last year, pk in 2017, and Wake -3 at home in 2016.  Wake Forest starting to get votes for the Top 25, and I really can’t agree considering they haven’t played any really good teams. Just 1 power 5 opponent, while BC has played 3. Wake Forest’s opponents have a -0.26 yard per play differential compared to BC’s who are +1.06.  Yet certain SOS metrics show BC having played the weaker schedule. I disagree, and it’s giving us line value here. 


BC was embarrassed the last time at home against Kansas, and the team worked on tackling and cleaned a lot of their issues up.  I think they win the turnover battle here as BC is one of the best in that nation at limiting turnovers. Say what you want about Anthony Brown at QB he certainly does not turn the ball over.  His stats don’t look amazing, but he’s gone up against an average 30th ranked passing defense this season compare that with Wake Forest who have faced 90th ranked pass defense on average and the stats are going to be very different. 


Boston College needs to establish the run, and AJ Dillon is healthy, and one of the best RB’s in the country.  BC ran for 220 yards against Wake last year, and Anthony Brown threw 5 TD’s. BC is protecting Brown well ranking 9th in sack % allowed, and that should open up this offense a bit against WAke whose pass defense ranks 73rd in the country in QB rating.  BC has proven they can run the ball still, and being at home should allow them to continue that trend.


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