Central Michigan +17 3.3% play
This spread is out of whack to me, and I think you see Central Michigan lose 61-0 to Wisconsin, and you see Western Michigan dominate Georgia State 57-10 at home, and it doesn’t seem all that crazy, but I think the Chippewas match up really well in this one. Western MIchigan could also be without their best offensive player in LeVAnte Bellamy, the RB has averaged 7.21 ypc, but I think Central MIchigan has proven they can stop the run. Central Michigan actually ranks 20th in ypc defense, compared to Western Michigan’s 118th ranking, and they both have faced similar offenses. In fact Central Michigan held Wisconsin to a season low 199 yards rushing, and a season low 4.63 ypc. They just got done holding Miami to 1.51 yards per carry. When Western Michigan can’t run the ball they are a different team. When Western Michigan is held under 4 yards per carry vs. FBS opponents they are just 3-5 since last year, and the 3 wins were by 3, 1, and 7 points. I think this can keep CMU in the game, and WMU has not been great on third down this year converting only 40%, and even in their dominating win against Georgia State they were 4-11.
Central Michigan is holding opponents to 37% conversions on third down right now. This defense also has the 19th ranked sack % so if they can stuff WMU on 1st down, they can also put pressure on Western’s QB Jon Wassink. CMU’s offense has been awful this year, but look at the defenses they have played, Wisconsin and Miami. The one time they didn’t play a dominating defense they put up 45 points against Akron. CMU has faced a tougher schedule so far, and we are getting line value because of it. Western Michigan’s run defense ranks 118th, and I think the Chippewas should be able to get their running game going like they did against Akron. Western Michigan has allowed over 200 yards and over 5 ypc in all of their games, and that’s against an average rushing attack ranked 76th. So they are playing poorly against poor competition in terms of rushing attacks. I think McElwain is an underrated coach, and this team seems to be playing for him. Chippewas won here two years ago, and I think this game comes down to the 4th quarter.
