Boise State is just 6-17-1 ATS as a home favorite while Air Force is 15-5-2 as a dog, 10-3-2 ATS the last 4 years as a road dog. Air Force was just 2-5 last year in one possession score games, and return a lot of that production and I think they will largely benefit from playing in close games and losing. Air Force was in a battle with Boise last year it was 28-28 at the half, and then 41-38 before Boise scored on a late TD. This year's Air Force team is clearly better, and although Boise is getting hype ranking #20 in the country, I think the jury is still not out on this team.

I don't think Boise is #20 ranked team in the country and I can see them losing 2 or 3 games this season with this game being one of them. I was really impressed with Air Force at Colorado last week, and I really felt like they dominated in the trenches, which will help their confidence going into this Boise game. The biggest improvement seemed to come in their pass defense as they held Colorado's Sr. QB Steve Montez to just 5.1 yards per attempt after he averaged 11.6 and 9.1 vs. Colorado State and Nebraska. They also held Colorado's rushing attack to only 105 yards, and even though that game went to OT they should have won it in regulation by double digits.

Boise's offense is still a major question mark for me, and their true freshman QB has looked good at times, but has thrown an INT in every single game. Hank Bachmeier definitely has talent, but the rushing offense has not been dominant thus far only averaging 3.84 ypc, and Air Force hasn't been giving up big plays so I think they could have a couple of huge turnovers that can change tonight's game. I think these two teams are pretty even, and feel Air Force's triple option, and ability to pass will be the reason they stay in this game. Boise's run defense has already given up 16 plays of 10+ yards. Look for this game to be tight throughout with Air Force controlling the pace of play.