Texas State +17.5 1.1% Free Play
Texas State +6.5 was my POD last week hosting Wyoming, and they should have not only covered but won the game. Two missed field goals, a pick 6, and they outgained their opponent by nearly 150 yards. Texas State return 10 on their defense, that ranked 43rd in yards per play allowed and they have the best group of LB's in the Sun Belt. I think we saw signs of the offense turning the corner, and many expect big things out of Jake Spavital who was the OC the last two years at West Virginia. So we have a team with experienced defense, and an offense that is supposed to get a boost. It has not happened yet, but I believe it will.
We also have line value here backing Texas State 0-2 ATS as the dog vs. 2-0 ATS SMU getting a lot of love, and have TCU on deck. Since 2013 dogs who are 0-2 ATS facing off against favorites 2-0 ATS are 20-12-1 ATS. I also think SMU who was able to win with margin against North Texas last week had the advantage in the heat as their big strength is depth. This is a 7pm game so it will be a bit cooler. SMU has not played perfect through the first two games. They have had issues in special teams with 4 missed kicks (2 extra points, and 2 <25 yard field goals).

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