I like Pitt for a few different reasons here. For one they controlled the clock in both games, and held Penn State 33 yards under their season average, and 148 yards under their season average, but unfortunately turned the ball over 6 times. They were in both games despite the final scores the last two years. They also beat Ohio by more than the final score would have indicated as they outgained Ohio 481 to 212 in the 20-10 final, which makes Pitt appear to be not that great. Penn State also played a MAC team last week at home, and they were getting beat on both sides of the ball on the line of scrimmage. They trailed at half time, and were outgained in the game, but all of that is hidden because they won 45-13 and covered the 31.5 point spread.

Now maybe that was a wake up call for this Penn State team, but I'm betting that Pitt wants this game bad, and there are enough red flags for Penn State, and more strengths for Pitt for me to believe this will be a game. Penn State who is breaking in a new QB in Sean Clifford has not been great on third down. Penn State is just 3-17 on third down, and Pitt's defense has held opponents 11-30 on third down. Pitt's defense has played great against two respectable opponents. They held Virginia to 310 yards of offense and even that game was closer than the final indicated.

I like that we are getting line value here with Pitt. Narduzzi has always been a good dog coach, and is 12-6 ATS as a road dog. Beat Clemson as a 21 point dog on the road in 2016. I think they have high variance with Mark Whipple as the OC, and I wouldn't be shocked to see them pull the upset here. This Pitt offense is due to click at some point, and I think Pitt might surprise them a bit with their new look offense. Now, if Pitt turns the ball over a bunch again then they will lose this game and not cover the spread. Pitt, however does take care of the ball on the road with only 12 TO's in their last 13 road games.