Iowa State +108 5% NCAAF POD
I was hoping to see the line that was 2.5 get to 3, but it's now going back to where the line opened when Iowa State was a 1 point favorite. I think there is value with Iowa State coming off a near loss to FCS Northern Iowa in week 1 in triple OT, and then getting a bye. For one most people will look to fade a team almost losing to an FCS foe, but Northern Iowa is a very good FCS team. Iowa has had problems with them in the past, and Iowa lost to North Dakota State back in 2016, another FCS opponent so it's not that unusual. Also, Iowa State really out played Northern IOwa as they outgained them by 200 yards. Meanwhile Iowa beat Miami Ohio, and Rutgers. So I don't really understand what has changed so much that Iowa State would not still be favored.
College GameDay will be here for the first time ever and that's a big deal for Iowa fans. We saw it last year when GameDay made their first trip to Washington State when they hosted Oregon, and Washington State dominated especially early. That's not a huge reason why I'm backing Iowa State. I really like head coach Matt Campbell, and he's 9-2 ATS as a dog here, they blew the 2017 game at home 41-44, and lost at Iowa 13-3. 6 of the last 8 meetings have been close, but Iowa State has had a tough time getting over the hump.
Iowa State's defense is a major reason why I like them here. They have the best linebackers in the Big 12, and an All Big 12 nose tackle which anchors the 3-3-5 defense in Ray Lima. Lima will be going up against a red shirt freshman at Center who was recruited to play DL and is making just his third start. It's a lot to ask because normally you don't have a defender lined up right in front of you when you face a 4-3. Iowa State also likes to show confusion at the line and brings different linebackers on blitzes, and I think that will have a big impact on an inexperienced Center.

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