Connecticut +21.5 1.1%
I think we are just getting too much value with Uconn here with Illinois in their largest road favorite role since 1991. It's for good reason as Uconn was awful last year, and average 50+ppg allowed, but honestly they started 8 freshman in one game on defense. Those guys are back with 10 on that side and this is Randy Edsall's third year, and I think we should start to see improvement. They also got some talent in the transfer portal on both sides of the ball which should help them. I know the 24-21 win over Wagner as a 3TD favorite is not very exciting, but I estimate that we are probably getting 4-5 points in value because of that game in addition to Illinois thrashing of Akron.
Let's talk about Akron, they have a new head coach, who was previously in the D3 ranks, and returned just 3 defensive starters, so the 42-3 final did not surprise me. I understand that everyone is excited with the players they got in the transfer portal, and ex. Michigan QB Brandon Peters looked great, but now they go on the road, Uconn has 2 extra days to rest, and there will be 10-20 mph winds.
Both teams prefer to run the ball first. Uconn ran the ball 60 times in week 1, and they ran it 60% of the time a season ago, while Illinois ran it 63% of hte time in week 1, and ranked 38th in run %. Those type of things don't tend to result in blowout wins. This is a bit of a throwback match-up with two older coaches, who like to run first.
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