West Virginia +14 2.2% PLAY
This is a lot of points for MIssouri, who played really sloppy last week losing to Wyoming with 3 turnovers, while giving up 297 yards on the ground and 7 yards per carry. West Virginia returns a trio of RB's who combined for 1871 yards last year, and they bring in an excellent coach in Neal Brown from Troy. Neal Brown at Troy the last three years, beat Nebraska on the road, LSU on the road, and lost to Clemson on the road by only 6 points in 2016. In my opinion, Neal Brown falls into the category of a top tier HC in his first year. Those type of coaches have gone 39-18 ATS over the last 3 years as a dog.
Troy was among the slowest teams in college football under Neal Brown at 66 plays per game which was 109th last year, and in their first game they had just 66 plays. I expect much of the same in this game, which gives us more value on 14 total points in my opinion.
I understand West Virginia looked awful against James Madison, but JMU is the #2 ranked FCS team in the country, and have given P5 opponents games before. They lost 24-13 to NC State early in the year, and that NC State team went on to go 9-3. I'm not saying West Virginia is that good, but I think they have more talent that it showed last week, and I just don't agree with the line moving from 10.5 at open to 14.


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