East Carolina +17.5 3.3% Play

I think there is some value here in East Carolina who has been a cash burner the last 3 seasons under MOntgomery going 10-25 ATS.  Mike Houston steps in after coaching JMU last year, and has good experienced, and played at NC State last year losing by only 11 points, and the game was closer than that.  NC State only out gained them by 40 yards, and were unlucky recovering only 1 of the 3 fumbles in the game.  I think we are getting value because of how bad East Carolina has been, and they also lost by 55 to NC State last year to end the year, but their HC was fired 48 hours before, and that was a make up game.

East Carolina has a tendency to play these in state games tough especially against the Power 5 opponents.  East Carolina beat NC State in 2016, and they also beat North Carolina as a 16 point dog last season.  A lot of these players probably wanted to play at NC State, and weren't recruited, with 14 returning starters and a far better coach at the helm I think this game comes down to the wire.  Especially considering what NC State lost on offense.  NC State managed only 24 points against JMU last year and under 400 yards.  NC State loses their QB Ryan Finley, who is #2 all time in passing yards in program history, 2 1,000 yard receivers, and 1,000 yard RB, and they are breaking in two new coordinators on the offensive side. I don't see how they could be laying 17.5 points here.  On the other side of the ball I like East Carolina's chances to move the ball as they have a mobile QB in Holton Ahlers.  Add it all up and I would not be totally shocked to see East Carolina have a shot to beat NC State in the end. 

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